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Scouting, For Science! Again!

Blackwill Shankill Butchers Darkwind Guru Renegade Group: Members Posts: 650 Joined: Jul 27, 2012 Heh. Grimm? Exploit?? No way... ......................... vet wv deathrceL1 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 8:23 am

Racing Robbie The White Ashes Darkwind Guru Renegade Group: Members Posts: 761 Joined: Jul 3, 2012 Grimm Sykes said: *StCrispin* said: RE: Grimm's post 15 is commonly the speed I travel.  My primary concern is reducing encounter occurrence and severity. What encounters? There's no encounters traveling from one camp to another. Which means it's almost effortless training, without a fee. And it's not true - I have encounters traveling between camps, they don't happen as often as along the main routes but the do happen. Don't know what you do do differently to me Grimm? ......................... vet wv northernsummer e2g raceL1 deathrceL1 slay2013 pvp3 ww pvp1 semiprocombat0,1,0 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:44 am

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 *StCrispin* said: goat starer said: StChipmunk .... I take it they still teach statistics in Your schools? This is a much too small data set to make any judgement from. It's not even close to being a suitable size to remove the possibility that this is simply a set of unlucky rolls. you are correct.  150+ unlucky rolls to be sure. also not known in the data is: Gang Fame Enemy Gang Fames Faction Reputations and other things that affect the chance of an encounter globally. And No, they do not teach Statistics here as a general rule.  It is available after your 2nd year of college but generally only persons entering a field of study involving mathematics are encouraged to take that course (such as Electronics Engineers such as my father, or Computer Programmers such as my wife.)  As an English and Journalism Major we only studied statistical analysis as it applied to polling and sociological/pathological response (ie; how to manipulate responses or see through manipulated responses and behaviors to determine credibility).  Clearly you do not understand statistics. It's not anything like 150 unlucky rolls in a data set that small. It's in the statistically insignificant bracket at the moment where you can draw no ,eating full conclusion. You are doing the normal human pattern spotting where there is no pattern. One major problem in this game is the knee jerk opinions from people who don't understand probability that leads to these crazy conversations with people like StChestnut here. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:50 am Last edited Dec 4, 2014, 10:17 am by goat starer

*StCrispin* Beasts of the Lair Darkwind Guru Anarchists Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 2,657 Joined: Feb 13, 2012 goat starer said: *StCrispin* said: goat starer said: StChipmunk .... I take it they still teach statistics in Your schools? This is a much too small data set to make any judgement from. It's not even close to being a suitable size to remove the possibility that this is simply a set of unlucky rolls. you are correct.  150+ unlucky rolls to be sure. also not known in the data is: Gang Fame Enemy Gang Fames Faction Reputations and other things that affect the chance of an encounter globally. And No, they do not teach Statistics here as a general rule.  It is available after your 2nd year of college but generally only persons entering a field of study involving mathematics are encouraged to take that course (such as Electronics Engineers such as my father, or Computer Programmers such as my wife.)  As an English and Journalism Major we only studied statistical analysis as it applied to polling and sociological/pathological response (ie; how to manipulate responses or see through manipulated responses and behaviors to determine credibility).  Clearly you do not understand statistics. It's not anything like 150 unlucky rolls in a data set that small. It's in the statistically insignificant bracket at the moment where you can draw no ,eating full conclusion. You are doing the normal human pattern spotting where there is no pattern. One major problem in this game is the knee jerk opinions from people who don't understand probability that leads to these crazy conversations with people like StChestnut here. Clearly this is simply an observation and isn't implied as being statistics.  You are the only one calling it statistics. Im just looking an ZPNs last 300+ travel runs.  From that it appears PF isn't working.  I didn't say it was for sure not working.  But it appears that after 6 different characters had 50+ encounters each, that the PF is getting more than everyone else.  You bought up Statistics, which this is not.  This is a general observation based on the data at hand. What we need for this is a add-on program that tracks this data from all users (like so many other games have).  Then you could actually create a statistical analysis. but in the meantime people shouldn't discourage ZPN as you are doing.  Otherwise we will have no data at all ......................... vet wv gwped paintladder paintball marshal raceL10,1,0 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 11:57 am Last edited Dec 4, 2014, 11:58 am by *StCrispin*

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 *StCrispin* said: Im just looking an ZPNs last 300+ travel runs.  From that it appears PF isn't working. no it doesn't StCristmas. Because it is a statistically insignificant sample, not conducted under proper experimental conditions. You don't even know all of the factors at play because they are unpublished. You are simply drawing inferences from nothing and calling foul. Basically you have flipped a coin 10 times, got 7 heads and 3 tails and are accusing the coin of being biased. This is basic maths. Even if all other conditions in the test were identical (and you knew what to expect) this is still not a large enough sample or variation from expectations to draw any inference from. The best way to know if stuff works is for Sam to test the code. The second best way is for players to do the type of carefully constructed trials that Lord Foul has done. The third best way is to build a MUCH bigger set of data in the way Z is doing... (preferably with much more data included). When he has ten thousand results we will have more of a picture but even then the data gaps will render the result entirely moot. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 12:10 pm

Bill Butcher Cutting The Butchers of Boozetown Racer Badlands Truckstop Faction Group: Members Posts: 202 Joined: Jun 15, 2014 ZomBPir8Ninja said: *StCrispin* said: I find it odd in the data ZPN had given us that the PF scout had MORE encounters than the Neg or the non-specced.  This raises questions about if the spec is even functioning as intended. While I agree this is a small sample size, I'd just like to point out that in the first Scouting, for Science! the Pathfinder also had more encounters than the Negotiator. Please remember that Negotiator is an active specialism which is never used until you actually spawn an encounter and ask for a truce from the drop down menu. Pathfinder is a passive specialism used to reduce damage when travelling over 30 miles per hour and reducing your chance for encounters at all speeds. ......................... vet wv Posted Dec 4, 2014, 2:41 pm

Celeris Alpha Omega Racing Sunday Driver Deathrace Mafia Faction Group: Members Posts: 85 Joined: Mar 2, 2010 I know that I have had encounters going between EL and SS camps. Never run between camps down south, so I cannot comment (nor do I have a sample size adequate for statistically significant analysis of encounter rates). ......................... vet wv ww sssc paintball semiprocombat gwped combat15,6,0 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:33 pm

*StCrispin* Beasts of the Lair Darkwind Guru Anarchists Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 2,657 Joined: Feb 13, 2012 goat starer said: *StCrispin* said: Im just looking an ZPNs last 300+ travel runs.  From that it appears PF isn't working. no it doesn't StCristmas. Because it is a statistically insignificant sample, not conducted under proper experimental conditions. You don't even know all of the factors at play because they are unpublished. You are simply drawing inferences from nothing and calling foul. Basically you have flipped a coin 10 times, got 7 heads and 3 tails and are accusing the coin of being biased. This is basic maths. Even if all other conditions in the test were identical (and you knew what to expect) this is still not a large enough sample or variation from expectations to draw any inference from. The best way to know if stuff works is for Sam to test the code. The second best way is for players to do the type of carefully constructed trials that Lord Foul has done. The third best way is to build a MUCH bigger set of data in the way Z is doing... (preferably with much more data included). When he has ten thousand results we will have more of a picture but even then the data gaps will render the result entirely moot. I never said foul.  (as for coin flipping, this was flipped 300+ times in 6 sets for a total of 2 results.  so that like flipping a coin 300+ times, grouping the flips into 3 sets each then saying 2 sets are not reacting as expected) I what I said was that ZPN's experience shows the PF having more total encounters than the Neg or non-spec.  and that would lead a person to think PF wasn't as effective as no spec at all.  That's clearly not true, because even if it were "broken" then it should be equal to no spec at all. I get tired of you putting words in peoples mouths for your own agenda. (especially mine since they aren't very yummy...  not like the Turkey im eating that my wife cooked) ......................... vet wv gwped paintladder paintball marshal raceL10,1,0 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:31 pm Last edited Dec 4, 2014, 9:43 pm by *StCrispin*

*StCrispin* Beasts of the Lair Darkwind Guru Anarchists Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 2,657 Joined: Feb 13, 2012 SPECIFICLY what I said was: *StCrispin* said: This raises questions about if the spec is even functioning as intended. If I felt the spec was broken I would have posted a statement to that effect in the Bugs forum or PMed Sam with the question directly so he could check. ......................... vet wv gwped paintladder paintball marshal raceL10,1,0 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:40 pm

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 StChipshop. Once you have discovered that you don't understand probability stop trying to use it. You don't know how to and watching you flail around the subject like an octopus in a garden pond is embarrassing. Do you actually know what statistical significance refers to? What you are saying is... To be accurate... Because this tiny data set does not do what I (somebody who does not have a basic grasp of mathematics or adequate information on variables) expects it to do it leads me (someone who does not understand probability) to conclude that the game may be broken. That is exactly the same thing as my coin tossing example. It's drawing incorrect or unsupportable inference from an example that does not meet the expectation of average. Mean probability occurs through the averaging of lots of results, many of which will be outliers and if your sample set is too small your result is insignificant. It's primary school maths StCoinslot. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 4, 2014, 11:56 pm

*StCrispin* Beasts of the Lair Darkwind Guru Anarchists Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 2,657 Joined: Feb 13, 2012 I don't think you are even reading posts anymore.  Just staring at the screen, typing away, trying to get my goat (so to speak) But I found you a cool Avatar for your gang:  Its from a site about Goat Staring (of the Baphomet worship variety).  Seriously if I had your username I'd use this as my avatar. Staring at Goats: Baphomet Worship Or if you don't want to go to the site, here is the pic: ......................... vet wv gwped paintladder paintball marshal raceL10,1,0 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:07 am Last edited Dec 5, 2014, 3:37 am by *StCrispin*

Grimm Sykes Sand xbzyas Darkwind Guru Merchants Faction Group: Banned Posts: 1,372 Joined: Mar 14, 2010 Ivan Kerensky said: Grimm Sykes said: Ivan Kerensky said: Shouldn't Pathfinder also actually provide a bonus when going at 30 mph ? It sound really weird that I have to manualy go down to 29 or up to 31 for it to activate... Why would you want to travel at 30 when 45 is an option? Because I have a work ? There is no benefit in travelling at 45 when I wont be able to play the eventual encounter and launch another trip. I set my speed in reference to the time where I will be able to start the return. I noticed you said there is no encounter when going camp to camp and this you can browser scout train from there. If that is so, the this is a bug that should be signaled and using it is an exploit I refuse to do. It's not a exploit, I sent numerous messages to sam about it. From what I understand from talking with some marshals is that it is because the camps keep piracy under control due to scouting from camp and winning camp defenses. Encounters can pop up if this isnt balanced. but if camps are already doing this why not take advantage of the situation. After all, that's one of the perks of camp membership. Really though, if it was a issue, it would have been addressed within the 2+ years I been doing it, and openly discussing it. Racing Robbie said: Don't know what you do do differently to me Grimm? If not due to the above, then it might also be that all my squads i do this with are between 21 and 46 CR Ain't nothing shady going on. And by the way Ivan, I do similiar. i got 45 MPh when i know i'll be around and in the evening i set my travel speed to arrive when i wake up. ......................... vet wv pvp5 pvp4 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:37 am Last edited Dec 5, 2014, 3:45 am by Grimm Sykes

*Boonwolf* Finger 3 Darkwind Guru Morgan Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 1,139 Joined: Mar 7, 2012 StC. and Goat will you two please put it to rest even though I find it rather funny you guys are not showing the better half of who you are. Fight PvP not forums! *Boonwolf* ......................... vet wv paintball paintladder ped1 race1 semiprocombat zom marshal pvp20,5,0 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 5:37 am

Bill Butcher Cutting The Butchers of Boozetown Racer Badlands Truckstop Faction Group: Members Posts: 202 Joined: Jun 15, 2014 *Boonwolf* said: StC. and Goat will you two please put it to rest even though I find it rather funny you guys are not showing the better half of who you are.   Fight PvP not forums! *Boonwolf* Fight Fight Fight! Boon, You're such an instigator!  ......................... vet wv Posted Dec 5, 2014, 6:51 am

Ivan Kerensky Les Loups Gris Autodueller Civs Faction Group: Members Posts: 419 Joined: Mar 1, 2008 *Boonwolf* said: StC. and Goat will you two please put it to rest even though I find it rather funny you guys are not showing the better half of who you are.   Fight PvP not forums! *Boonwolf* Dont they, Boon, dont they ? But it is clear they are getting so much on the nerves one of the other they just can't stand to see the other names, blatant case of Bull's Sight. Perhaps they should use the /ignore function ? ......................... vet wv Posted Dec 5, 2014, 7:21 am

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 *StCrispin* said: I don't think you are even reading posts anymore.  Just staring at the screen, typing away, trying to get my goat (so to speak) But I found you a cool Avatar for your gang:  Its from a site about Goat Staring (of the Baphomet worship variety).  Seriously if I had your username I'd use this as my avatar. Staring at Goats: Baphomet Worship Or if you don't want to go to the site, here is the pic: Delighted that you have given up on embarrassing yourself with maths StClingfilm. Now if you could just have a go at mobilising your limited intellect to stop missing the point with cultural references as well you could be well on the way to you finally managing a valuable forum contribution. Or at least one that doesn't emphasise the dim bulb of you intellect too much. If we can weed out a) racism b) weird religious fervour c) lack of cultural reference points and d) maths from your posts you may not have much to say... But at least it might be coherent. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 8:26 am

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 Just read that blog.. Do you get all of your information from blogs that are either written by nut jobs or are jokes? I especially liked the picture of lady Gaga wearing deer antlers with the caption .... Lady Gaga wearing goat horns to illustrate she was some kind of devil worshipped. You didn't write it did you? The style and accuracy are right up your street. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 8:36 am

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 District 9 is about devil worship! I thought it was an analogy for apartheid South Africa with aliens. so easy to miss this stuff. ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 8:40 am

*Boonwolf* Finger 3 Darkwind Guru Morgan Faction Group: Marshals Posts: 1,139 Joined: Mar 7, 2012 Need you all be reminded Forum Moderation  Marshals can edit and lock any topic in the forums. This power should only be used in extreme cases - notably when a player is being abusive and/or harassing another player.      ......................... vet wv paintball paintladder ped1 race1 semiprocombat zom marshal pvp20,5,0 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 9:07 am

*goat starer* Special Circumstances Darkwind Guru Evan Reds Faction Group: Contributors Posts: 10,907 Joined: Oct 29, 2007 *Boonwolf* said: Need you all be reminded Forum Moderation  Marshals can edit and lock any topic in the forums. This power should only be used in extreme cases - notably when a player is being abusive and/or harassing another player.      Do I need to refer you back to the very clear instructions around marshals and family members? I know you were slightly ahead of StChumbucket when the brains were handed out .... Employ them. Pointing out that StCuddles can't do maths is not abusive. Nor is pointing out that he is a racist as he openly posted racism in the lobby. What exactly are you objecting to? Affectionate nicknames? Your brother calling me a devil worshipper? If it's the latter then I take no offence. It takes something rather more intelligent to offend me. StChirpyChirpyCheepCheep! Look at my avatar! A GOAT! A tiny goat! ......................... vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2 Posted Dec 5, 2014, 9:26 am Last edited Dec 5, 2014, 10:44 am by goat starer

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